Meesho shares surged 11.6% to an intraday high of ₹244.50 on the National Stock Exchange on Tuesday, September 22, after UBS Group raised the e‑commerce platform’s net merchandise value (NMV) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) estimates for the 2029‑2031 financial years. UBS analysts lifted NMV forecasts by 7‑18% and EBITDA estimates by 20‑40%, citing a continued flywheel from sellers and buyers, rapid expansion in stock‑keeping units (SKUs) and logistics partners. The upgrade reflected expectations of stronger medium‑term margin trajectory driven by improving advertisement monetisation and logistics economics.

In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Meesho reported a year‑on‑year net loss of ₹1,328 crore, narrowing from ₹2,894 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Revenue from operations rose 48% YoY to ₹3,713 crore, up from ₹2,504 crore in Q1 FY26, driven by improved delivery conversion through lower cancellations, Return‑to‑Origin (RTO) rates and higher platform monetisation. EBITDA loss stood at ₹224 crore in Q1 FY27, compared with a loss of ₹265 crore in the same quarter of FY26.

Meesho’s NMV registered a yearly growth of 34% to ₹11,614 crore, supported by continued expansion in its user base and higher engagement levels on the platform. Contribution margin expanded to 4.6% of NMV, up 54 basis points sequentially, driven by logistics efficiencies and better monetisation. Net transacting sellers surged 81% YoY to 1.04 million and buyers rose 29% YoY to 274 million in the April‑June quarter of FY27 (Q1 FY27).

At around 12:05 PM, the shares were trading 6.25% higher at ₹232.85 apiece. The scrip has increased 15% in the past week and 19% over the month. On a year‑to‑date (YTD) basis, it has advanced 34%. The stock hit a 52‑week high of ₹254.40 on December 18, 2025, and touched a year’s low of ₹125.56 on March 16, 2026. As of September 22, 2026, Meesho’s market capitalisation stood at ₹1.08 lakh crore according to NSE data.

UBS Group’s note highlighted that the higher NMV forecasts reflect a continued flywheel from sellers and buyers, coupled with rapid expansion in SKUs and logistics partners. The analysts noted a similar increase in contribution profit estimates and a 20‑40% rise in EBITDA for FY29‑31, signalling a stronger medium‑term margin trajectory. They also emphasised that the upgrade is underpinned by improving advertisement monetisation and logistics economics, which are expected to drive profitability in the coming years.