Shares of copper miners and product makers such as Hindustan Copper, Hindalco and Vedanta rose as much as 3% on Tuesday morning, mirroring a global copper rally that has been in place for the sixth consecutive day. The surge follows a steep climb in copper futures on the US market, which have traded above $6.7 per pound for six straight sessions. On the Long Metal Exchange, copper reached a record high of $14,870 per tonne earlier this month before falling 4% on the same day. By Tuesday afternoon, prices had recovered, trading near $14,755, a 0.5% gain from the previous week.

Supply constraints began in 2026 when operational incidents at Indonesia’s Grasberg and Congo’s Kamoa Kakula mines removed 600,000 tonnes of production from global output at the start of the year. The first half of 2026 saw global mined copper output fall more than 1% year-on-year, even as prices surged. Chile, which accounts for 24.5% of total mined output, recorded a 6.6% year-on-year drop in H1 2026, tightening supply further. The resulting imbalance pushed London Metal Exchange futures over spot by more than $500 per tonne, signalling persistent supply pressure. The Chilean copper commission forecasts a continued decline in mined output for 2026 despite the price rally.

Demand for copper has moved in the opposite direction to supply. China, a major consumer, is experiencing robust physical demand, with copper prices trading at a premium over futures. The Yangshan premium, a key gauge of physical commodity pricing, reached its highest level since 2022, while the premium over Shanghai Futures also hit the highest level since 2023. This heightened demand in China, coupled with global industrial activity, has helped sustain the upward pressure on copper prices despite supply headwinds.

Amid tariff concerns, copper supply to the United States has risen sharply. Sprott Asset Management reports that copper cathode imports jumped to a record 223,000 tonnes in July, compared with 37,000 to 80,000 tonnes imported before 2024. The surge is driven by the threat of tariffs on refined copper, which is currently exempt from the tariff list. Comex inventories have also increased more than sevenfold from February 2025 to August 2026, further eroding global supply and adding to the pressure on copper prices.

Shares of copper miners and product makers such as Hindustan Copper and Hindalco have rallied strongly over the past year, driven by improved output realisation. In contrast, shares of key consumers Polycab India, RR Kabel, KEI Industries and Finolex Cables have experienced margin compression, signalling that raw‑material inflation could force price hikes if it persists. The contrasting performance underscores the divergent impacts of copper price movements on producers versus end‑users in the Indian market.

The volatility in copper prices is expected to persist as tariff‑infused anxiety and a demand‑supply mismatch continue to push prices higher. Reducing ore grades are likely to keep supply constraints tight into FY27, while increasing power demand from AI data centres worldwide and rising physical demand in China are expected to sustain demand pull inflation in copper prices.